Archive for the INFORMS Category

Progress in Probability Management

At the recently concluded INFORMS Practice Meeting I described the current state of Probability Management, with emphasis on real world usage. Probability Management is a relatively new tool for robust uncertainty-aware decision-making based on using Monte-Carlo Simulation in an interactive and highly visual manner. It is enabled by new technical developments that I previously documented in Analytics Magazine.

The Practice meeting organizers used to request slides six weeks in advance. This was done to print the “proceedings” (slides, not actual papers) binder in time. Since the conference began providing slides on CD a couple of years ago, the advance has halved. Even so, I ended up doing a significantly different presentation than I’d planned a month out. For those who attended the presentation in Orlando, the updated slides can be downloaded here.

Unlike folks who memorialize each stray pearl of wisdom in Powerpoint, I only put up enough verbiage to remind me what I should say. So my slides are not terribly useful on their own. If you are interested in the Probability Management, you might do better to start with its two-part description in OR/MS Today [Part I and Part II], continue with my Analytics article, and then only look at the slides from Orlando.

INFORMS 1.5

The primary professional society for advanced analytics – INFORMS – has a distinguished history and an impressive membership. But like most volunteer-driven groups, INFORMS operates on the basis of consensus and professional fellowship. It is emphatically not an opportunity-driven enterprise akin to a private company or even a lobbying-savvy professional group such as the American Medical Association.

This sort of self-branding – as an agency for the advancement of a specialized kind of knowledge rather than as a guild devoted to nurturing and expanding professional hegemony – affects both the operation of INFORMS and the development of the profession. An interesting manifestation of this phenomenon is the slow adoption of information technology by INFORMS. Things are, however, improving: As of today, INFORMS boasts an official blog!

This official blog doesn’t quite get us to INFORMS 2.0; it’s still one-way communication. The society has supported blogging at previous national-level meetings through the efforts of individual INFORMS Computing Society (ICS) members (see here). And the very nifty eNews Daily, which debuted at last year’s Washington, DC meeting, looks to me like a keeper.

I anticipate that these efforts will take a more definite form over time, to the point that non-attendee members (as well as the interested public) can feel connected to events as they occur. The nominal goal, of course, is to increase the dispersion and penetration of the profession’s message. But more interestingly, proliferating Web 2.0 technologies should increase the engagement of INFORMS members in the society’s affairs and the attractiveness of its scheduled events.

A milestone of the development of Web 2.0 ideas within INFORMS should appear in late April, from the 2009 Practice Meeting in Phoenix, AZ. The Marketing folks at the society are mulling over what should and could be done. Let them know! Are you planning to attend? If so, does the prospect of (you) blogging from the meeting grab you? Does it seem like unnecessary work when you’d rather be schmoozing with grad school friends? Does it raise the question, “would anyone want to read my impressions?”

And if you are not planning to attend, what might most make you keenly regret your decision not to? Would blogposts help you better stay in touch with goings-on at the meeting? Or is something like the aforementioned eNews Daily already too much information? Or perhaps, going for a diametrically opposed extreme point, do you wish someone would set up an INFORMS Twitter feed?

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